2016: Ten Surprises for Japan

Senior Advisor

It is the time of year when economists and strategists present their forecasts and baseline scenarios for the year ahead, 2016. Quantitative forecasts are based on de facto probability models, and qualitative scenarios are based on, well, a combination of experience and common sense. Either way, most methodologies leave little room for a discussion of true outliers and surprises. This list of “2016: 10 Surprises for Japan” is trying to address this deficiency. Here are the “out of consensus” scenarios that I personally worry about as possible inflection points for Japanese investment strategy. By definition, they carry probabilities that may be one or two standard deviations away from the market’s baseline assumptions; however improbable today, any movement toward their far-out targets may well trigger major inflections in Japanese markets. Their primary purpose is to stimulate the reader to “watch out for the unthinkable.” Enjoy & best wishes for a healthy, happy and prosperous 2016. Read Jesper Koll’s 2016 - Ten Surprises for Japan.

Important Risks Related to this Article

Investments focused in Japan increase the impact of events and developments associated with the region, which can adversely affect performance. 

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About the Contributor
Senior Advisor
Jesper Koll is a Senior Advisor to WisdomTree. Over the past two decades Jesper has been consistently ranked as one of the top Japan strategists/economists, working as Chief Strategist and Head of Research for major U.S. investment banks J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. His analysis and insights have earned him a position on several Japanese government advisory committees and Jesper is also one of the few non-Japanese members of the Keizai Doyukai, the Japan Association of Corporate Executives. He has written two books in Japanese, Towards a New Japanese Golden Age and The End of Heisei Deflation. After arriving in Japan in 1986 Jesper initially worked as an aide to a Member of Parliament. Jesper has a Masters degree from the School of Advanced and International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and was a research fellow at both Tokyo University and Kyoto University. He is a graduate of the Lester B. Pearson College of the Pacific.