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Tariffs Are (Sort of) Done: What the Supreme Court Ruling Means for Markets

Published February 23, 2026

Samuel Rines
Samuel Rines

Macro Strategist, Model Portfolios

Christopher Gannatti, CFA
Christopher Gannatti, CFA

Global Head of Research

Key Takeaways

  • The Supreme Court’s ruling that IEEPA tariffs were illegal removes a meaningful earnings overhang for U.S. industrial and consumer companies, and potentially opens the door to margin recapture through tariff reimbursements, supporting a more constructive near-term equity backdrop.
  • Export-oriented markets such as Europe and Japan, which were directly exposed to U.S. trade measures, could see improved earnings visibility and relative performance as trade pressures ease and global supply chains normalize.
  • With companies already adapted to a tariff-heavy environment, the sudden removal of trade barriers acts as a tailwind for manufacturing and Value-oriented sectors, potentially reshaping regional leadership as investors reassess international allocations.

The Supreme Court’s ruling that the IEEPA tariffs were illegal marks a meaningful shift in the trade backdrop. For markets, the decision removes a policy overhang that had been weighing on earnings expectations across several sectors. The implications stretch well beyond a legal headline—they touch corporate margins, global supply chains and regional equity leadership.

At the company level, the reaction makes intuitive sense. U.S. industrial and consumer-oriented firms were among the most exposed to the IEEPA tariffs. Many had already outlined how tariffs would affect 2026 earnings. With the ruling striking those measures down, the anticipated drag is, at least for now, off the table.

There’s another layer as well. Previously paid tariffs may be recoverable, opening the door for companies to seek reimbursement from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. If pursued successfully, those recoveries would represent margin recapture—an immediate and tangible benefit for affected firms.

While much of the focus has centered on U.S.-listed companies, the impact is global. Export-oriented markets such as Japan and parts of Europe were directly affected by U.S. tariffs. Indian companies were also caught in the crosscurrents. The removal of those trade barriers improves the outlook for manufacturers and exporters with significant U.S. exposure.

For investors, this development reinforces the case for looking abroad. Developed international markets, particularly Europe and Japan, stand out in this environment. Investors seeking exposure to these themes may consider:

  • WisdomTree Europe Defense Fund (WDEF): Provides broad exposure to Europe’s leading defense companies that could prove important, given Europe’s increasing responsibility for its own defense.
  • WisdomTree European Opportunities Fund (OPPE): Focuses on European companies with strong share buyback and capital discipline characteristics, as well as exposure to important themes of Europe’s growth and development.
  • WisdomTree GeoAlpha Opportunities Fund (GEOA): The strategy is designed to track the performance of companies primarily benefiting from geopolitical and global policy shifts. The focus is on the following specific categories of action: Geopolitical Events, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shifts, Innovations in Technology and Shifting Consumer Preferences.
  • WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ): Provides exposure to Japanese exporters while hedging currency risk, a structure that has historically appealed to investors during periods of yen volatility.

Each offers differentiated access to developed international companies that could benefit from easing trade pressures and a more constructive global earnings backdrop.

That said, tariff rhetoric is unlikely to disappear. The political backdrop remains dynamic, and policy paths can shift quickly. The administration now faces a choice: accept the ruling and allow markets to respond accordingly or pursue alternative avenues that could reintroduce uncertainty. Either route will require monitoring.

Still, it’s important to recognize that companies have already adapted to operating in a tariff-heavy world. Supply chains have been reworked, sourcing has been diversified and pricing has been adjusted. In that context, the absence of tariffs, even temporarily, acts as a tailwind rather than a catalyst for disruption.

On balance, the ruling appears supportive for equities, particularly in regions and sectors that bore the brunt of prior trade measures. It may also revive the conversation around Value versus Growth, especially in markets where industrial and manufacturing exposure plays a larger role.
Trade policy remains fluid. For now, the removal of a meaningful earnings headwind offers investors another reason to revisit international equities and reassess how global allocations are positioned for the next phase of the cycle.

Important Risks Related to this Article

There are risks associated with investing, including possible loss of principal. Please read the Fund’s prospectus for specific details regarding the Fund’s risk profile.

WDEF: Foreign investing involves specific risks, such as risk of loss from currency fluctuation or political or economic uncertainty. A Fund focusing its investments on certain sectors and/or regions increases its vulnerability to any single economic or regulatory development. This may result in greater share price volatility. The Fund invests in the securities included in, or representative of, its Index regardless of their investment merit and the Fund does not attempt to outperform its Index. The composition of the Index is governed by an Index Committee and the Index may not perform as intended.

OPPE: Foreign investing involves special risks, such as risk of loss from currency fluctuation or political or economic uncertainty. This Fund focuses its investments in Europe, thereby the impact of events and developments associated with the region can adversely affect performance. The Fund invests in derivatives in seeking to obtain a dynamic currency hedge exposure. Derivative investments can be volatile, and these investments may be less liquid than other securities, and more sensitive to the effects of varied economic conditions. Derivatives used by the Fund may not perform as intended. The Fund invests in the securities included in, or representative of, its Index regardless of their investment merit and the Fund does not attempt to outperform its Index. The composition of the Index is governed by an Index Committee and the Index may not perform as intended. Due to the investment strategy of this Fund, it may make higher capital gain distributions than other ETFs.

GEOA: The economic, political, regulatory and other events and conditions that affect issuers and investments in the United States differ significantly from those associated with other countries and regions. Any event or condition that affects the U.S. economy, whether originating from within or outside of the United States, may have an adverse effect on the Fund’s investments in the United States and thus, the Fund’s performance. Funds focusing their investments on certain sectors and/or regions increase their vulnerability to any single economic or regulatory development. The Fund invests in the securities included in, or representative of, its Index regardless of their investment merit and the Fund does not attempt to outperform its Index. The composition of the Index is governed by an Index Committee and the Index may not perform as intended.

DXJ: Foreign investing involves special risks, such as risk of loss from currency fluctuation or political or economic uncertainty. The Fund focuses its investments in Japan, thereby increasing the impact of events and developments in Japan that can adversely affect performance. Derivative investments can be volatile and these investments may be less liquid than other securities, and more sensitive to the effect of varied economic conditions. As this Fund can have a high concentration in some issuers, the Fund can be adversely impacted by changes affecting those issuers. Due to the investment strategy of this Fund, it may make higher capital gain distributions than other ETFs. The Fund invests in the securities included in, or representative of, its Index regardless of their investment merit and the Fund does not attempt to outperform its Index.

To learn more about the funds mentioned, please click the respective ticker: WDEF, OPPE, GEOA, DXJ.

About the contributors

Samuel Rines
Samuel Rines

Macro Strategist, Model Portfolios

Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product. With over a decade of experience in economics and finance, Samuel has held significant roles such as Chief Economist at Avalon Investment & Advisory and Economist and Portfolio Manager at Chilton Capital Management LLC. He is also the author of "After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy," and holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the UNH Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics, as well as having studied Economics at the University of Oxford.

Christopher Gannatti, CFA
Christopher Gannatti, CFA

Global Head of Research

Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space. Christopher came to WisdomTree from Lord Abbett, where he worked for four and a half years as a Regional Consultant. He received his MBA in Quantitative Finance, Accounting, and Economics from NYU’s Stern School of Business in 2010, and he received his bachelor’s degree from Colgate University in Economics in 2006. Christopher is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst Designation.

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