

What El Niño means for agricultural commodities in 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that a strong El Niño is developing, arriving against a warmer climate baseline and into a fertiliser market already disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Cocoa, sugar, coffee and wheat face the sharpest supply risks. For investors, the distribution of outcomes for key agricultural commodities has shifted materially to the upside.
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