WisdomTree
equity

Every Rally Starts Somewhere

Published June 17, 2014

Christopher Gannatti, CFA
Christopher Gannatti, CFA

Global Head of Research

Emerging market equities have not been much comfort to investors in 2014. We’ve had a number of detailed discussions on our blog about our Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (DEM), which tracks the performance of our Emerging Markets Equity Income Index —an Index designed to locate some of the best valuation opportunities across dividend-paying emerging markets stocks. Sometimes Value Investing Requires Patience In many cases, finding what might look inexpensive in an equity market is only part of the battle. A bigger issue is being able to maintain the conviction in the face of how what is inexpensive may not appreciate in price immediately. We’ve had many of those discussions with regard to DEM, particularly about the Russian Energy and Chinese Financials sectors. These are some of the most inexpensive areas of emerging markets today, and they have been prominent holdings within DEM since June 2012. For current holdings of DEM click here. A critical question from investors has not been whether these stocks may represent a buying opportunity from a valuation perspective; on that point we’ve seen wide agreement. Rather, a critical question—and one we could never answer with perfect certainty—is when might there be a catalyst to shift sentiment that could potentially allow these sectors to rally? Case Study of the Past Two Months Since every rally starts somewhere, we decided to take a look at Russian Energy and Chinese Financials stocks over the past two months—specifically March 21 to May 23, 2014. At the start of this period, concerns over Russia’s actions in Ukraine were in full swing. Additionally, it seems like each year China comes into the news with the potential of an economic “hard-landing”—meaning in essence a quick transition from economic growth to economic recession. Central to this discussion in China’s equity markets are large, state-owned financial institutions, as the feeling is that if China does run into economic problems, these companies may be at the center of the storm. Over the course of this period, each of DEM’s top three holdings within the Russian Energy and Chinese Financials sectors announced a dividend increase.1 The reason we mention this is simple: Each of these companies has committed to distribute more cash to its shareholders. Our viewpoint is that this may indicate that the situation—both within these Chinese Financials as well as these Russian Energy companies—may not be as dire as what was being reported in March 2014 when negative sentiment was widespread, and we’ve actually analyzed dividend increases broadly in China and Russia in prior blogs. Of course, these dividend announcements shouldn’t be taken as an indication that these firms are risk-free—far from it, and we also recognize that this is a short-term period and there is no way to know with certainty whether it will continue. We just believe it may be time to take a second look at what we believe to be attractive valuation opportunities in emerging markets, as opposed to having a knee-jerk reaction to avoid these firms. Taking a step back for a moment, we set up a series of comparisons of performance back to the broad MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EM). Ultimately, this is the emerging markets benchmark that many look to when judging the performance of the asset class. To it, we compare the performance of Chinese Financials sector stocks within DEM, as well as the Russian Energy sector stocks. While we recognize that the MSCI EM is a broad emerging market benchmark, its ultimate performance is heavily related to people’s feelings about emerging markets, and those feelings are presently tied to Russia’s and China’s activities. Within Russia’s and China’s equity markets, Energy and Financials are the dominant sectors, both if weighting by market capitalization, as the MSCI EM does, and if weighting by dividends, as the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Index does. We also look at the performance of the top three individual holdings within each of these sectors, which are responsible for the majority of DEM’s exposures within each. It’s important to note that within the MSCI EM these are also larger positions that are influential in determining the overall performance generated by the MSCI EM’s China and Russia exposure. • Russian Energy Stocks within DEM: As a sector, Russian Energy stocks within DEM outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EM) by approximately 3% over this period. The bulk of this performance came from Gazprom (average weight of 5.27% for period). Lukoil (average weight of 2.18% for period) and Rosneft (average weight of 4.13% for period) clearly did not perform as well. We believe that the major catalyst for Gazprom’s performance was the striking of an important natural gas supply deal with China—38 billion cubic meters per year for 30 years—which could have a value of approximately $400 billion.2 This deal had been under negotiations for 15 years and eliminates an important source of uncertainty hanging over the company’s stock price. Still, after this positive performance, each of these three stocks had price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios below 5.6x. As of the same time, the MSCI EM had a P/E ratio of 11.1x.3Chinese Financials within DEM: As a sector, Chinese Financials within DEM outperformed the MSCI EM by approximately 1.5% over this period. Relative to what we saw in the Russian Energy sector, the performance of DEM’s top three holdings in the sector was clustered much more closely together. China Construction Bank (average weight of 4.38% for period) led the way, but Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (average weight of 3.13% for period) and Bank of China (average weight of 2.04% for period) also outperformed the MSCI EM. After this period of positive performance, each of these three stocks still had a P/E ratio below 5.0x.4 Average Annual Returns for DEM

Average-Annual-Returns11,-d-,png.ashx

Cumulative Performance over Last Two Months (3/21/14–5/23/14)

Cumulative-Performance1,-d-,png.ashx

Gauging Sentiment: Dire to Less Dire What we seem to see here is not that the risks to Russian Energy firms or Chinese Financials have completely abated—they’ve just receded a bit and seem less immediately dire. Sometimes in emerging markets, the movement in sentiment from dire to less dire could lead to positive performance, and we look forward to seeing if this two-month rally can continue. 1Source: Bloomberg, as of 5/23/14. 2Source: Matthew Philips, “Is the Russia-China Gas Deal for Real—or Just Fumes?” Bloomberg Businessweek, 5/21/14. 3Source for P/E ratio data: Bloomberg, as of 5/23/14. 4Source: Bloomberg, as of 5/23/14.

Important Risks Related to this Article

There are risks associated with investing, including possible loss of principal. Foreign investing involves special risks, such as risk of loss from currency fluctuation or political or economic uncertainty. Funds focusing on a single sector generally experience greater price volatility. Investments in emerging, offshore or frontier markets are generally less liquid and less efficient than investments in developed markets and are subject to additional risks, such as risks of adverse governmental regulation and intervention and political developments. Investments focused in Russia and China are impacted by events and developments associated with the regions, which can adversely affect performance. Due to the investment strategy of this Fund, it may make higher capital gain distributions than other ETFs. Please read the Fund’s prospectus for specific details regarding the Fund’s risk profile.

About the contributor

Christopher Gannatti, CFA
Christopher Gannatti, CFA

Global Head of Research

Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space. Christopher came to WisdomTree from Lord Abbett, where he worked for four and a half years as a Regional Consultant. He received his MBA in Quantitative Finance, Accounting, and Economics from NYU’s Stern School of Business in 2010, and he received his bachelor’s degree from Colgate University in Economics in 2006. Christopher is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst Designation.

GO PAPERLESS

Contact your broker to sign up for eDelivery of WisdomTree ETF documents.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Funds before investing. U.S. investors only: To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, please call 866.909.9473, or click here to view or download a prospectus online. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest. There are risks involved with investing, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Foreign investing involves currency, political and economic risk. Funds focusing on a single country, sector and/or funds that emphasize investments in smaller companies may experience greater price volatility. Investments in emerging markets, real estate, currency, fixed income and alternative investments include additional risks. Due to the investment strategy of certain Funds, they may make higher capital gain distributions than other ETFs. Please see prospectus for discussion of risks.

WisdomTree Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC, in the U.S.

© 2026 WisdomTree, Inc. All Rights Reserved.