MARKET INSIGHTS
03/07/2023
Gold Outlook to Q4 2023: Gold Could Hit a Nominal High…But a Real High Looks Out of Reach
Gold’s fortunes appear to be turning in early 2023. Using consensus economic forecasts, our model indicates gold could easily reach a new ‘nominal’ high this year (last reached in 2020). However, reaching a ‘real’ high (accounting for erosion due to inflation) looks out of reach. Even in our bull case, gold will be shy of those levels and some 11% below the real high reached in 1980. In a scenario where inflation falls drastically (Siegel case) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) makes an early pivot, gold prices stand to do well as bond yields decline more than in the consensus scenario (and using a lower level of inflation, the real value of gold is less discounted).
