WisdomTree Insights

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Gold Outlook to Q1 2025: Breaking New Records

Gold has been defying gravity of late, climbing to all-time highs in March and April despite mixed economic conditions that would usually bring it back down to earth. Read the full report here. 

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XSOE: Governance and Growth in Emerging Markets

An interesting dichotomy has developed in emerging markets (EM), between government actors and independent investors in publicly traded equities. Government ownership may lead to corporate governance issues that arise from the inherent principal-agent problem and cause operational inefficiencies and weaker levels of profitability.

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Bitcoin in Multi-Asset Portfolios
As the cryptocurrency market matures, more investors are considering Bitcoin as part of their broader investment strategy. Its unique characteristics make it an intriguing asset to study and potentially incorporate into portfolios.
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Inflection Point: India
Over the last decade, investors have been rewarded by being over-weight U.S. equities. In our view, this will be tough to repeat over the next decade. We believe India is at an important inflection point for its economy and stock market.
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Japan is Rallying, and Foreign Investors are (Finally) Noticing

Japan’s equity market has been overlooked for decades, but recent regime changes are reshaping its appeal. With inflation returning and corporate reforms underway, Japanese equities may offer U.S investors value.

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Cybersecurity: The Megatrend for all Seasons
Why is cybersecurity important? How might one organize the space in a way that helps make it more digestible? Working with Team8, a venture firm with an exceptional level of experience in analyzing trends within cybersecurity, we gain the perspectives of two of the most powerful countries in cybersecurity.
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The Dividends of a Dividend Approach
Investment managers and investors alike are always looking for better ways to invest. We believe indexing is highly efficient, and that ETFs have a number of benefits that make them a wise investment vehicle. But as history has shown us time and again, price is not always the best indicator of value.
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Dynamic Correlations: Bitcoin vs. Other Asset Classes
How might bitcoin behave, from a returns standpoint, relative to other asset classes? There is no certainty here, and the past is no guarantee of the future, but let’s evaluate some examples of the past for relevant lessons.
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Gold Outlook to Q4 2024: From One High to the Next

Despite the lack of institutional investor interest in the metal, gold had a fantastic year in 2023, reaching a new high on the London Bullion Market Association. Spot gold prices also closed the year up. In contrast to 2022, bond and U.S. dollar headwinds are allowing the metal to gain. Read the full report here. 

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China ETFs: What's In Your Portfolio?

By removing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) from a market capitalization-weighted universe of Chinese equities, the WisdomTree China ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (CXSE) offers a unique balance of many of the key characteristics investors look for in a China allocation, with one of the lowest net expense ratios. 

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Fixed Income: A Return to Normalcy
The Fed appears to be at, or close to, the end of this rate hike cycle. Nevertheless, the policymakers seem intent on keeping monetary policy restrictive for longer than originally expected.
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Let Uncle Sam Provide You Income Without the Volatility
With higher interest rates and elevated bond market volatility, it is important to understand the dynamics behind the different Treasury securities available in order to make an educated decision for your bond portfolio. Let’s take a quick lesson on the UST market.
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The Difference of Dividends: WisdomTree Dividend Indexes
Dividends contributed nearly 30% to the 10.4% annual total returns of the S&P 500 over the long run. In this latest Insight, Alejandro Saltiel and Matt Wagner review the WisdomTree Dividend Indexes relative to the S&P 500 Index and why dividends matter.  
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Gold Outlook to Q2 2024: Recession Risk Increasing as Central Banks Continue to Slam on the Brakes
As recession risks escalate, gold emerges as a potential safe haven. Central banks are maintaining their gold purchases, and the precious metal has shown strong performance amidst economic stress. Read the full report here. 
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Truly Profitable Companies: Dividend Growth's Drivers
The driver of long-term compound returns is dividend growth. But what drives the driver? Corporate profitability.
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Can We Westernize the Battery Supply Chain?
In a conversation from March 30, 2023, Christopher Gannatti, WisdomTree Global Head of Research, and Adam Woods, Senior Research Analyst, Global Coal Markets, for Wood Mackenzie, discuss the energy storage space as well as some of the intersections between these dynamics and the specific WisdomTree investment strategy.
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Three Strategies for an Evolving Bond Market

Over the last year and a half, fixed income investors have faced a variety of challenges: a once-in-a-generation pandemic with unprecedented lockdown, a surge in inflation and rate hikes at a pace not seen since Chairman Volcker’s tenure. With the U.S. bond market expected to continue evolving, learn about three high-conviction themes for fixed income investors to consider now. 

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Gold Outlook to Q4 2023: Gold Could Hit a Nominal High…But a Real High Looks Out of Reach
Gold’s fortunes appear to be turning in early 2023. Using consensus economic forecasts, our model indicates gold could easily reach a new ‘nominal’ high this year (last reached in 2020). However, reaching a ‘real’ high (accounting for erosion due to inflation) looks out of reach. In a scenario where inflation falls drastically and the Fed makes an early pivot, gold prices stand to do well as bond yields decline more than in the consensus scenario (and using a lower level of inflation, the real value of gold is less discounted).
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15 Years of Emerging Markets: Good Performers in a Tough Spot
Coming off our splashy launch of 20 ETFs in one shot in the summer of 2006, we launched a couple of emerging markets ETFs in 2007. We have been left frustrated, not because performance has been poor relative to the asset class, but because the asset class has been so down and out for virtually their whole lives. What we're left with is a bittersweet 15th birthday celebration.
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Housing Could be the Next Cloud Over the Stock Market
Economic conditions feel like they are deteriorating rapidly. With losses in stocks, bonds and crypto, it's like you need to take out a personal loan to purchase a box of Cheerios. It's miserable, but then again, nobody is mailing back the keys to their house like they were in 2006.
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Where is a Recession Being Priced In? U.S. Small Caps
With the S&P 500 Index flirting with bear-market territory, headlines are proclaiming a recession is being priced in. But at what probability? High-yield credit spreads—commonly viewed as a leading indicator of economic slowdowns—have spiked since the start of the year.
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Forgotten Mid- and Small-Cap Dividend Payers
A stellar stretch of returns in recent years for mega-cap growth has led some investors to ditch allocations to mid- and small-cap laggards. History suggests this may be a mistake. 
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The Yield Curve's Crystal Ball is Shaky
It’s going to be a yield curve summer. Inversions—when 10-Year Treasury yields go lower than those of 2-Year Treasuries—have a recession-predicting track record that has become something of legend in Wall Street circles. The reason: having longer-duration bonds trade at lower yields than nearer-term securities is counterintuitive and rare. When it happens, it is a signal that something is awry in the economy.
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Where Will This Rate Hike Cycle Take Us?
With much fanfare, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has finally begun its long-awaited rate hike cycle. Unfortunately, now comes the hard part. In other words, how is this process going to play out in terms of not just what the individual rate hikes will look like—25 basis points (bps) or 50 bps?—but also, where the terminal rate for the Fed Funds target range will ultimately climb to, and when? It is important to remember that the Fed will be drawing down its balance sheet at the same time, in what should be referred to as the polar opposite of quantitative easing (QE): quantitative tightening or QT.
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A Multi Year Value Cycle Beckons
It’s possible a new value cycle commenced in November 2021, reversing 14 years of woeful underperformance relative to growth. When the value stocks were rising, growth stocks were outperforming. The cycle that may have ended in November 2021 exceeds even that of the legendary growth stock run of the 1990s.
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India: 1.4 Billion People Emerge
India has experienced robust GDP growth and is constantly striving to reach industrialized status, but work still needs to be done. Jeff Weniger discusses how this presents an opportunity for investors, with a focus on how the country's demographics play a key role in its future growth.
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Japan for 2022?
The markets may be handing a gift to Japan’s export machine in 2022, courtesy of a suddenly more hawkish Federal Reserve. The textbooks say that if one country catches an inflation shock while another does not, the currency of the former should weaken.
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Cutting Volatility in Foreign Stocks

After looking at hundreds of asset allocations across this industry over the years, we have seen many investors own foreign stocks with no hedge. They have plenty of rationales, but the main ones are a desire to go along with the status quo, a discomfort with hedging or belief in currencies’ diversifying effect.

We strongly feel the status quo argument –that maintaining currency exposure because it is the common thing to do – is hardly a satisfactory explanation for following that path.

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If at First You Don't Secede... Grexit Risk Again?
I’m often asked about unappreciated risks that can bite the stock market. Here’s one: the threat of a Greek exit from the eurozone—Grexit—coming back.
 
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Planning for Potential 2020 Election Results
We are entering the homestretch of the 2020 presidential election season. With two polarizing presidential candidates, an ongoing pandemic, a recession, social unrest and a mail-in ballot controversy, this cycle is truly like no other. With the current environment in mind, we lay out four possible election outcomes, with our thoughts on how the markets may react to each one. Our hope is that advisors and investors can begin to think ahead and plan for different potential scenarios.
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The Pressure Tightens on China's State-Owned Enterprises

Though China has made great strides in recent decades, filing more patents than any other country, elevating its university system and creating tech giants that rival those in Silicon Valley, The Chinese Communist Party’s obfuscation with regard to COVID-19 may prove a catalyst for Western capital to shift assets from China’s State-Owned-Enterprises to firms that have looser ties with Beijing. 

Jeff Weniger discusses how eliminating SOEs from indexes may increase sales, employee efficiency and return on equity, boosting the aggregate quality factor in a portfolio. 

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Japanese Dividends Look More Secure Than U.S. Dividends
Jeff Weniger discusses why, in our COVID-19 world, Japanese dividends may be safer than U.S. dividends.
 
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Echoes of Dot.com
The oft-cited Bob Farrell, the former head of research at Merrill Lynch who was famous for his 10 investment “rules,” often asserted: “(Market) excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.” Jeff Weniger assesses this claim and discusses where the "excesses" lay in our current market. 
 
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The Ghost of Sun Microsystems?
Jeff Weniger discusses the similarities between one of the faces of the 1990's tech bubble, Sun Microsystems, with some of today's popular technology stocks, and shares tips for how to avoid some risks these stocks may present. 
 
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The Stock Market's Five Stages of Grief
Jeff Weniger discusses recent market moves as it relates to "The Five Stages of Grief," and what the future implications could be.
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    Dividend Growth's Drivers: Picking Apart Quality
     
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