Over the last year, the discussion surrounding the potential for an inverted yield curve, and what that event could be signaling from a broader macroeconomic backdrop, has picked up steam. Well, here we are on the cusp of longer-dated yields being below shorter-dated rates, and investors still seem to be trying to figure out if this time will be different.

Looking at recent developments in the developed world’s sovereign debt markets, an investor could be excused for feeling like they are on a roller-coaster ride. From the beginning of May through the third week of June, market participants witnessed surging U.S. Treasury 10-Year yields, followed by chaos in the Italian bond market, which led to some noteworthy flight-to-quality trades in both the U.S. and Germany.

Over the last week to 10 days, there have been summits of various kinds as well as central bank meetings of the G-3. For good reason, each of these events has generated its own individual headlines, but one particular development has essentially flown under the radar. A trend is beginning to take shape in 2018: inflation appears to be on the rise.

The Federal Open Market Committee delivered its second rate hike of 2018. Based upon the Federal Reserve’s outlook, it would appear as if further gradual rate hikes are still the more likely scenario going forward, but interestingly, there have been some shifts in attitude regarding just how many additional moves could be forthcoming.

With the U.S. Treasury 10-Year note yield hitting its highest level since 2011 earlier this month, investors have been asking if any buyers have emerged. But I want to turn your attention to a broader perspective, namely what has been the trend for foreign buying of Treasuries.