One of the most important trends in the markets in 2014 has been the rise of the U.S. dollar and the collapse of the euro and the yen. We’ve written a lot about utilizing hedged equity stategies to isolate international equity markets without adding the layer of euro and yen exchange rate risk.
It is a common misconception that, because an ADR is traded in U.S. dollars in the United States, there is no exchange-rate risk. But that’s not the case. Here’s why.
The discussion of currency-hedged strategies has shaken some of the core beliefs of investors. Traditional investment vehicles that package equity risk plus a secondary currency risk on top of the equity risk have been referred to as the traditional “plain vanilla” exposure because they were the first to the market, and it is what investors have been using for so long.
We have been exploring the case for layering in foreign currency (“FX”) on top of foreign equity returns. One of the most common arguments I have heard for taking on FX risk in international equity portfolios in an unhedged fashion is that FX can be a portfolio “diversifier.”
On September 4, the European Central Bank (ECB) took further accommodation to support the economic growth environment in Europe. As a result, the euro collapsed about 1% immediately after the news, while European stocks rose on prospects for more monetary policy easing. This reaction mirrors what we saw in Japan in 2013, and it strengthens the case for taking the euro out of Europe.